I took about a week off from blogging because I felt I could adequately repeat my two or three thoughts on this market 140 characters at a time and in real time, and while I continue to collect and synthesize here, what you’ll read from me on this blog in the recap category won’t differ much in substance from what you’d get on the twitter stream.

I did want to point out that while over the last six days we’ve had more solid downward action than at any point during the rally, we have yet to see much volume or VIX acceleration, and even with a lower high in, the rally top is not out of reach. What has definitely been seen, as Trader Mike points out, is some surprising technical damage done (charts didn’t predict current action well, is how I sum that up), but we have yet to retreat (yet) off some very elevated levels. 875ish was key throughout April and May, and remains several points–and all sorts of minor support levels–away.

I expect to see a decent dead-cat bounce tomorrow and possibly Fed Wednesday, and then I expect the downward movement to resume, perhaps accelerating as chaser longs get frightened out, or Goldman Sachs ramps up its next bonus-booster strategy. But even though I accurately timed today’s breakdown last week, I’ve made a number of wrong calls for this rally to end, and–ever the skeptic, even of myself–I won’t be calling an intermediate top (again, missed once in May) before you’ve seen it with your own eyes. Indeed, if we’ve seen it already, I don’t feel like we know it yet.

If you’ve been paying attention to this blog, you know that I fully expect this rally to end, however, and well before the summer is out. (This week would be fine, and only about 8 weeks overdue.) If you need yet another dose of the grim & grims I continue to munch by the fistful to keep my real-rally-uh-uh strength up, may I direct you to John Mauldin’s Outside the Box for this week.

Without further ado, your recaps:

  • Market Talk (summary, no charts, a little more commentary worth a look here)
  • Trader Mike (annotated chart analysis, always a must-read)
  • Cobra’s Market View (annotated chart analysis, particularly enjoyed the Institutional Index chart)
  • The Chart Pattern Trader (technical video chart analysis, ~21 mins. And calling for donations folks. No free lunches!)

Not quite in the recap category, but I also highly recommend taking a look at Afraid to Trade’s trend day down lesson for the day.

Be careful out there.

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