Yeah funny day, wasn’t it? Still a-wander and not really play-by-playing–let alone trading this tape, yikes, though I am not all in cash–but it looks awfully messy from here.

There was a lot of noise–in this case, trader noise, not the news variety–yesterday about how so many bears saw TA potential that they were bound to get nailed. And today, everyone going on and on about the $SPY 200 DMA, the bullish consolidation, the blah blah blah.

Here’s the one thing I see: there is an unbroken, one-year-old trendline on the $SPY daily and weekly charts. That trend? Down. Today’s action? This week’s? Last week’s? Last two months’? Uh, crowding, perhaps, but failing, much like September ’08’s action. Failing to go up. Burden of proof, it seems to me, is on the bulls in May. (And no, I’m not talking rhyming cliche.)

Name the better signal, I’m all ears. Otherwise, I’m sticking to my completely untechnical hypothesis: the $SPY 200 DMA will kiss the action before the action kisses it.

Just a couple recaps tonight, and they disagree with each other. Go TA! The silence elsewhere is just as meaningful, I’d say. Without further ado:

Indecision is the watchword. Good luck out there.

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