Pretty quiet out there in market analysis land. Everyone must just figure there’s no point in analyzing anything any more, since everyone has now bought every share of everything at a very just price. The only recap I found was Market Talk by John Shipman (summary, no charts).
And this interesting options play, via Crimson Mind: Someone thinks $XLI is gonna get nailed this spring…
In the May contract, over 71,000 puts have traded at the 19.0 strike. XLI (SPDR FD INDUSTRIAL) is at 21.78 +0.80
…while someone (else?) thinks it’s gonna have a good summer.
Call volume is running 2.5X the 10 day average. Total of 3308 puts and 29379 calls have traded. A large amount of June calls were traded at the 23.0 strike. (note high OI)
So how about some news you can’t use? It’s hard to find any links or websites to read on the internet. I feel ya.
Also, if you believe as I do that CRE is gonna tank sometime in the next 88 weeks, Bill Luby has some more nuanced ETF plays than SRS/short IYR for ya.
Also, go read Chris Nelder on the offshore drilling conun”drum” (ha!). If anything should be rallying hard because we’re on the verge of recovery, it’s oil, because we don’t have any.
Also, if you haven’t read Chris Whalen’s stunning and exhaustive piece on AIG, reinsurance and CDS swaps, and side-letter fraud from earlier this month, you’re missing out. A juicy tidbit:
As with the phony reinsurance contracts that AIG and other insurers wrote for decades, when AIG wrote hundreds of billions of dollars in CDS contracts, neither AIG nor the counterparties believed that the CDS would ever be paid. Indeed, one source with personal knowledge of the matter suggests that there may be emails and actual side letters between AIG and its counterparties that could prove conclusively that AIG never intended to pay out on any of its CDS contracts.
Good night and good luck.
UPDATE: Jack McHugh is out, and does not disappoint. Man, someday I’ll link like that. Someday…
Also, buh-bye Chrysler. Hopefully in Chapter 12 you “function” as a “business”.